The Russian arms industry can produce 600 new tanks a year. This is really a huge number, underlining the industrial capabilities of Russia. However, it may also not be enough to keep the war in Ukraine going for many years to come.
Russia is losing tanks quicker than it can make them. Image credit: Vi Ko via Wikimedia (CC BY-SA 4.0)
Russia’s military industry is working overtime to support the war Russia launched against Ukraine. Analysis of missile debris indicates that new weapons are being used, as stockpiles of older weapons are probably gone. In addition, the situation of tanks and armoured vehicles, in general, is also deteriorating.
Forbes estimates that Russia will run out of tanks and other combat vehicles sometime in the middle of 2025. Every year, 500-600 tanks and about 1000 infantry fighting vehicles should leave Russian factories, but even these impressive numbers do not cover the annual losses of Russia in Ukraine.
By the way, it is difficult to assess the reliability of those production rate estimates. That number likely includes tanks taken from long-term storage sites for deep overhauls. In addition, the pace of production may fall if Ukrainian attacks on Russian industrial facilities are successful. Finally, not only the tanks are lost at war, but also their crews. Russia would really like to keep a strong tank force on its territory, not everything can be sent to Ukraine.
At the same time, the number of Russian troops in Ukraine is increasing, but they do not have enough armoured support. It is estimated that over the past year, Russia has increased the number of its troops on the front lines in Ukraine from 360,000 to 470,000.
Reports cited by Forbes indicate that Russia’s rate of losses is increasing and that the rate of production is lagging behind. Russians still have a lot of old equipment, but it needs to be prepared and its effectiveness on the battlefield is not great. Cheap FPV anti-tank drones make quick work from these older tanks.
By the middle of next year, Russian warehouses will run out of stocks of tanks and other combat vehicles, and the ongoing production will not cover the losses. Russia may be left without the necessary armoured vehicles. The fact that Russia lacks armoured vehicles is already evident. Unarmored Ural trucks are already being sent to assault missions, replacing armoured infantry carriers and infantry fighting vehicles. Ukrainians have already seen Russian motorcycles running towards their trenches in bizarre borderline suicidal attack missions.
Forecasting Russia’s military industry output is tricky, because data cannot be confirmed. It should also not be forgotten that Russia has allies, such as North Korea and Iran, which can supply some weapons to compensate for the losses. But as for now, it seems like Russia’s war against Ukraine might be unsustainable long-term and we will have to see what that means.
Written by Povilas M.
Source: Tech.wp.pl
