
China could outspend the U.S. on R&D by 30%‑plus by 2030—even if the trade war roars on
U.S. dollar values, PPP‑adjusted (2020 base). The U.S. dip beginning in circa FY2027 tracks the scheduled sunset of the CHIPS Act, legislation Trump says he will repeal. Run the numbers 1,000 ways, and the outcome never flips: China overtakes the United …